what is clv in betting

image

  • Closing line value refers to the value of a bet relative to where the line closes.
  • Consistently beating the closing line is usually an indicator of a winning long-term bettor.
  • Tools offered by The Action Network help bettors find the best possible numbers, increasing the odds of consistently beating the closing line.

For those of you who are new to sports betting, the “Closing Line” is the line/odds of a game when the market for a game closes (i.e. just prior to kickoff/first pitch/tip off, etc.). Closing Line Value (CLV) is simply a comparison between 1) the line/odds that your bet was placed at and 2) the Closing Line.

Full
Answer

What is CLV and how do you use it?

Feb 01, 2022 · The rule of thumb is – If the closing line is less than the line you bet at, you have positive CLV. If the opening line is -3 and the closing line is -3.5, positive CLV. If the opening odds (for a moneyline bet) is +120 and the closing line is -105, positive CLV. If the opening line is +6 and the closing line is +7.5, negative CLV.

What is the difference between CLV and lifetime value?

How do you calculate CLV in sales?

What is CLV (customer loyalty and satisfaction score)?

Jan 18, 2021 · Closing line value is the price at which one makes their bet versus the closing line of the bet. As a simple example, let’s say a money line bet is made at the price of +500 and the money line closes at +200.

image


How is CLV betting calculated?

You calculate both BEPs and subtract the second from the first, then divide it by the first BEP. The result is the closing line value. You are now able to track the closing line value of all your bets.Sep 21, 2018


Does closing line value matter?

Consistently beating the closing line is usually an indicator of a winning long-term bettor. Tools offered by The Action Network help bettors find the best possible numbers, increasing the odds of consistently beating the closing line.Dec 9, 2021


How do you beat closing line value?

0:035:51What is Closing Line Value and How to Beat the Closing Line | WT ClipsYouTubeStart of suggested clipEnd of suggested clipAlways try to find the best number and ultimately that does more often than not turn into a good betMoreAlways try to find the best number and ultimately that does more often than not turn into a good bet do you have anything to add on that.


How often do you need to beat the closing line?

Assuming a bettor randomly picking teams to bet on, and that price movement, on average, is random, it’s reasonable to expect that they will beat the closing odds about 50% of the time.Nov 10, 2017


How do you beat Sportsbook?

How to Win at Sports Betting: 20 Ways to Beat the SportsbooksBet Lines as Early as Possible.Bet the Best Odds.Find Low or No Hold Markets.Open Accounts at Multiple Sportsbooks.Bet on less popular sports and markets.Create a Model.Find/Create/Use Statistics That Aren’t Widely Available.Find an Angle.More items…•Jan 2, 2020


What does beating the closing line mean?

If you got a better number than what the line closed at, that would be considered a smart bet because you beat the closing line. In other words, it means you beat the market and got better odds, or a better price, than the closing price.May 5, 2020


What is the purpose of CLV?

The theory is that if you’re getting enough CLV to cover the vig, you should be a winner in the long term. Many “pros” claim that its best to benchmark performance based on CLV rather than actual outcomes. This assertion relies heavily on the efficient market hypothesis.


What is the EMH in sports betting?

Without giving you a financial theory history lesson, very simply the efficient market hypothesis (“EMH”) states that the price of an asset reflects all known information and that consistent alpha (excess returns) generation is impossible. Sports betting translation: the only way to bet profitably is to generate CLV and it’s impossible to generate +EV if you only bet right before the game starts. If you bet the Closing Line you should expect to lose an amount equal to the vig in the long-term.


What is the only thing that moves the price of an asset?

In an efficient market, the only thing that moves the price of an asset is new information. If this were true, we should be able to identify long periods of static lines, as no new information has been revealed.


What are the three forms of market efficiency?

The three forms of market efficiency are Strong Form, Semi-Strong Form, and Weak Form. The Strong Form assumes that all information (private and public) is baked into the market. The Semi-Strong Form assumes that all public information is baked into the market price of an asset. The Weak Form states that historical prices cannot be used to predict future prices.


What is the most important thing a bettor can do?

Focusing on having positive closing line value is the most important thing that a bettor can do. Wins and losses will always be streaky and can be very poor indicators of one’s actual success. Beating the no vig win probability is the metric that will earn you respect from the world’s best sports bettors.


Can touts predict every game?

Touts will commonly post their record and units won as proof that they can indeed predict every game on the board. The true fact of the matter is that beating the closing line is a much better indicator of long term success. An infinitesimally small group of people can win long term over time without beating closing line value.


Is Asian Handicap an over under?

Asian Handicap on an Over/Under. Yes, here things can get pretty wicked! A line that moves from +3.5 to +2.5 in the NFL isn’t equal to a line that moves from +9.5 to +8.5. The same issue can be found with over/unders in every sport.


Professional sports bettors talk about closing line value

Closing line value is one of the most important topics in sports betting communities and it needs to be explained how to calculate it. There is a lot of talk about it, many try to calculate it, many understand the importance of it, but it needs to be explained further.


Why Yield and ROI is not enough

Yield (or ROI) and the profit is usually not enough to make a conclusion about your betting performance. We all know that 97% of all bettors lose in the long run and only a few make a profit and what is even more important, only a few are skilled and beat the market.


Bookmakers who accept sharp bettors have a big sample size of bets

And if we check Twitter, betting portals, monitoring sites, etc… they all win. It looks like a much bigger percentage than only 3%. This is where common sense comes into play.


Quick Theory of CLV

The betting market will open (Stage 1), bettors will bet (Stage 2) and it will close with the last minute odds (Stage 3)


CLV and xCLV

There are two ways how to calculate the closing line value and most betting sites and bettors calculate only CLV. This is simply comparing your taken odds versus closing odds.


What is Closing Line Value?

When sportsbooks offer a game to bettors, they put out a line that they believe to be an accurate representation of the two teams involved. But the spread isn’t static.


Why Is CLV Important?

Let’s say you’re a $100 bettor — meaning your unit size is $100 — and you make, on average, five bets per night (150 per month).


How to Beat the Closing Line

While this is all fine and dandy, beating the closing line is no easy task. There are, however, tools and strategies you can use to help increase your chances of getting good numbers on your bets.


What is Closing Line Value?

Closing line value compares the price at which you’ve bet a team or side to the closing line at the time the event starts.


How to get Closing Line Value

The best way to sum up the importance of CLV is the more often a bettor gets an edge, the less they have to write about it.

image

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.